Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Can Direct Pay Health Care Stem Rising Costs?

Rising Cost of Healthcare Led to High Deductible Plans

At 16% of the GDP in 2008, US healthcare costs is the highest among the OECD countries. Employers, as the payors of most of the health insurance premium, have been dropping coverage or cutting back health benefit levels.  This gave rise to High Deductible Health Plans (HDHP, aka Consumer-Driven Health Plans, CDHP) which increases the dollar amount the covered individual has to pay before insurance coverage kicks in.

Often an employer offers HDHP in combination with a Health Savings Account (HSA), so employees can put aside pre-tax money for healthcare expenses.  The minimum deductible amount before HSA can be offered often becomes the HDHP's deductible amount.  For 2013, IRS has set this minimum threshold to $1,200 for an individual and $2,400 for a family.  For some employer-sponsored plans, the deductible has been set closer to the upper limit of $6,050 for an individual and $12,100 for a family.

Doctors Respond by Offering Direct Pay Medical Practice

As a result, individuals and families become responsible for a growing portion of their healthcare expenses before insurance will pay for anything.  While this is happening, some doctors have chosen to move to a Direct Pay model because billing and collecting from insurance (including Medicare and Medicaid) have become such a burden that they would rather opt out of the system.  They charge a cash price and get the payments from the patients rather than work with insurance:
  1. Some offer lower cost medical services to everyone who pays out-of-pocket - Portland and Seattle providers work with Sprig Health to list their services and prices.  Zoomcare makes their basic office visits available for a cheaper price if you pay cash.  Their cash price is 30% lower than what they would charge insurance.  
  2. Some other doctors set up Direct Primary Care clinics that charge a monthly subscription fee to provide primary care services - Qliance in Washington State charges $50 a month and up.  MedLion operates similarly in California.
A New York Times article on May 22, 2012 discusses how a trucking company uses the Qliance plan in combination with their health plan with $5,000 deductible.  This benefit combination allows the company to lower its healthcare costs while still provide good health benefit.

Risks that May Prevent Direct Pay Success

These innovations are transforming how health care is purchased and delivered, hopefully with a result of lower costs and better health outcomes.  However, there are a few issues that may choke off these innovative ideas before they have a chance to flourish:
  • PPACA may make the practice of buying healthcare out-of-pocket impractical.
    • The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) requires that preventive care services be covered by insurance and individual states mandate certain minimum coverage limits.  Real high deductible plans (e.g. $5,000 or above) may become illegal for small group plans.  If the deductibles are lowered, people will have a lot less incentive to subscribe to a Primary Care plan or pay out-of-pocket for their incidental care.  Lower deductibles aren't bad in themselves but many observers expect to see rising insurance premium as a result.
  • Employers may continue to reduce what they are willing to contribute in health benefit.
    • With the Direct Pay model, patients have to pay out-of-pocket for healthcare.  Currently,  some employers are willing to pay for a Direct Primary Care subscription or reimburse some out-of-pocket expenses (using HRA) as they increase the health plan deductible. These funding may dry up in the future.  When that happens, will patients pay their own money for necessary preventive or sick care?  If not, those Direct Pay medical practices will not survive.
  • Doctors cannot see Medicare and Medicaid patients while practicing Direct Pay.
    • Medicare and Medicaid require that a doctor charges Medicare patients the lowest price for any service.  However, the doctor can charge a Direct Pay patient less because he does not need to go through insurance billing and collection, which often reduce the doctor's take up to 50%.  Practically, this means a doctor can't offer attractive Direct Pay pricing if he or she sees Medicare patients.   Many doctors are not yet ready to turn away Medicare and Medicaid patients.

Why Should We Care?

PPACA has been written to expand health insurance coverage but it does not have the teeth to bring down the growing cost of health care.  We need to allow innovative models such as Direct Pay (including but not limited to the Direct Primary Care clinics) have a go at lowering the cost of healthcare.

The goal of extending coverage and providing preventive care in PPACA is commendable and valuable.  However, some of the mandates in the law may force us to stay on the track of uncontrolled healthcare costs, which will lead to higher insurance premiums and eventually unaffordable and thus lower coverage.  That would defeat the purpose of PPACA.  Do you agree?  Does your political leaning (left or right) influence how you feel about this issue?

Monday, May 21, 2012

Walmart's Mobile Commerce Strategy

A few months ago, Walmart expanded its mobile development team by purchasing Small Society, an iPhone app development consulting firm in Portland, Oregon.  The @WalmartLabs team in Portland hosted a talk to introduce this development and spoke about their assessment of the mobile commerce space.

This was an informative session.  However, as I listened to the presentation and audience Q&A, I couldn't help but refer to news in March 2012 that Best Buy was being turned into Amazon's showroom.  This happened despite news that Best Buy deployed a mobile app to better engage with consumers just 3 months ago.  Walmart said it was trying to provide an integrated shopping experience for its customers.  Skeptics might say it was more of a defensive posture against Amazon's bar code scanning mobile app, which already did great damage to Best Buy.

Given that @WalmartLabs has been on an acquisition tear recently, will it be focused enough to execute a coherent eCommerce strategy, or will it just oscillate between catching Amazon in innovation and safeguarding its big box stores' business?  Even with a clear strategy, the evolving landscape of mobile commerce will make it challenging for @WalmartLabs to execute.

Footnote:
Some recent @WalmartLabs acquisitions 
  • April 18, 2011 - Kosmix
  • September 13, 2011 - OneRiot
  • November 9, 2011 - Grabble 
  • January 6, 2012 - Small Society

Monday, January 23, 2012

How much did you spend on health care last year?

Do you know how much you spend on health care last year?

More specifically, do you know the amount you spent on health insurance and doctor visits.  It appears that many people are very aware of how their insurance coverage (or lack of) affects their health care expenses, as the comment thread for this blog post illustrated.  However, if you haven't paid attention to the numbers, the answer may surprise you.

Let's run some scenarios to see how much you would have spent:

Research has shown that on average a person goes to the doctor 4 times a year.  Now let's analyze the scenarios in which this person is
  1. insured with co-pay and co-insurance but not a high deductible,
  2. insured with a high deductible plan, and 
  3. not insured at all.

Insurance Status Summary of an example plan Out-of-Pocket Cost for 4 doctor visits Total Annual Expenditure
Conventional Health Insurance Premium of $250 biweekly.
Deductible $500.
Copay $30
Copay: 4 x $30 = $120
Doctor bills $120 x 4 = $480

Deductible reached, so insurance pays $100 of the $600.
Premium = $250 x 26 = $6500
Out-of-pocket = $500

Total paid = $7000
High Deductible Health Plan Premium of $30 a month.

Deductible $1500.

Coinsurance 20% up to the
max out-of-pocket $3000
Doctor bills $150 x 4 = $600

Deductible not reached, so insurance pays $0.
Premium = $30 x 12 = $3600
Out-of-pocket = $600

Total paid = $4200
Uninsured No plan and no premium to pay.
A savvy patient would negotiate for cash price for doctor visit
Cash Price $110 x 4 = $440 Total paid = $440

First thing you may notice is that the uninsured pays less for his health care in this case than both the insureds.  Now, I am not here to advocate people to get off health insurance and live off the grid.  A single serious health problem or accident is enough to bankrupt most people who do not have insurance.

On the other hand, any savvy consumer of healthcare should notice two points
  1. The price you pay for doctor visits with insurance can be higher than what you pay if you offer to pay cash.  In other words, cash price is often cheaper.
  2. If you have a deductible, you want to review your health insurance policy.  For just a few visits a year, you may save money by not using the insurance card.  You can also save a few trees by not generating endless trail of Explanation of Benefit (EOB) statements.
How does this work?
  • By paying cash, the person with conventional insurance pays $440 out-of-pocket rather than $500, so her total annual health expense is $6940 --- $100 less for the year.
  • The person with high deductible can pay $440 out-of-pocket.  That means he pays a total of $4040 for the year --- $160 less.
You may now demand to see a list of clinics or websites that offer doctor visits at cash prices.  After all, I can't get off making a claim that conventional wisdom is bunk without substantiating it.

If you are in Portland, Oregon, check out Doctor Visit at Sprig Health and ZoomCare.  Both offer medical services at cash price but they operate rather differently.  Doctor visit at cash price ranges from $95 and up.  With insurance, you will pay $120 and up.

It is time to use these resources and take control of your healthcare expenditure by making informed choices.  Don't you agree?

Monday, January 16, 2012

Further proof of EHR market concentration

According to an article on ModernHealthcare.com, few EHR vendors dominate payments.   The author analyzed data released by the Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC) and came to a conclusion similar to the report by SK&A that I quoted a couple of weeks ago, i.e. there is significant concentration in the EHR market.  

According to the article, up through November 2011, 21,697 providers have qualified for Meaningful Use payments via Medicare or Medicaid.  Of these providers who received the federal incentive payments,
  • 28% use EPIC
  • 9% use eClinicalWorks
  • 7% use Allscripts
  • 5% use AthenaHealth
  • 5% use Community Computer Service

21k providers is fewer than 2.2% of the 954,000 physicians in the US.  Some of these 954,000 are not practicing or seeing Medicare patients, so they would not be eligible for Meaningful Use payments.  Even then, these figures tell us that the EHR market is still far from being saturated.  Despite that, the folks who are trying to build and sell EHRs will have an uphill battle. 

Without significant market share, you wouldn't be able to secure VARs to do selling, installation and maintenance work for you.  If you have to staff your own team to do that for doctors around the USA, you better figure out how much margin your business will have left at end of the day.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Increasing Risk of Health Data Breach in 2012?

According to a prediction by the idexperts group, 2012 is a year that will bring increasing data breach and regulations.  Among 11 trends they predicted, the top 5 are
  1. Healthcare organizations will not be immune to data breach risks caused by the spread of mobile devices in the workforce;
  2. Class-action litigation firestorms are imminent;
  3. Social media risks in healthcare will grow;
  4. Cloud computing is not a panacea; technology is outpacing security and creating unprecedented liability risks; and
  5. Growing reliance on business associates will create new risks.
I would not disagree with this assessment, but I believe there is a good amount of self-marketing in the release of this white paper.  With more practices adopting EHR and using e-Prescribing, the likelihood of sloppy practice leading to data breach is higher.

However, we have already seen numerous data breaches reported by health care delivery organizations (i.e. hospitals and clinic groups) as well as health insurance companies.  Pretty much every risk factor cited by this report has been in existence for over 3 years.  There is no tsunami of data breaches that will hit us out of nowhere in 2012.

Rather than claiming that data breach will hit everyone in 2012, it is more important for every organization that handles patient data to review their processes and stay vigilant.  If you have a computer system dealing with health care data and you don't know what data security, PHI, HIPAA, business associates and intrusion tests are, you need to find some help.  Otherwise, the thing to do is to stay up-to-date rather than to panic and spend money without a clear ROI.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

How the internet is changing our visits to the doctor

The internet has changed how we buy books, consume news, make travel arrangements, do our jobs and lots more.  However, it has not done much to how we get medical care.  Unless you have a close doctor friend, you need to make an appointment even to get even the smallest medical advice.  Like it or not, some high tech start-ups are out to change that.

To start with, more people in the US are going without health insurance.  They are avoiding a trip to the doctor if at all possible.  Even people who are insured are researching their own symptoms on websites like WebMD.   A few conversations I had recently pointed to other start ups that aim to help consumers research their own medical questions:
  • Health Tap - A startup in Palo Alto, CA that gets physicians to answer questions for free.  Any consumers can sign up to ask questions.  Physicians can vote on each other's answers.  The hope is that it not only engages physicians but also help rank answers from various resources.  This company just got Series A funding late 2011.
  • Wellsphere - This is a community website where the general public can ask health and fitness questions and answer them. Its future looks to be the least compelling among these 4. Ron Guntman who started Health Tap was apparently CEO of Health Tap for a few months in 2011.
  • AskTheDoctors.com - This site is based in Canada and claims to want to make medical information available to everyone for free.   You can ask any questions and get them answered by real doctors.
  • MedlinePlus - This is a site managed by the US National Institute of Health.  It provides information on health care topics and drug information for anybody. 
Comparing the traffic these sites receive and their monetization model:



Website


Alex US Rank
(Jan 8, 2012)


Monetization Model
Medline Plus (NIH.gov)      187 A site run by the US government. The data is available for free and offers great value for both health care providers and consumers. The government can't make money off this site.
Wellsphere 10,651 Part of Remedy Health Media. It isn't clear how this site makes money. There is no ad on the site. The parent company is probably scratching its head too.
Health Tap 39,776 Free for consumers. No monetization yet. No ad on the site. Probably going the advertising path like WebMD and Epocrates.
AskTheDoctor.com 87,656 Shows Google Ads. With the amount of traffic, the site probably makes some money but unclear if it makes enough to be interesting. The site owner needs to decide what they want the site to be. The way the Google ads are shown doesn't cultivate trust for this site.

For health care consumers, these are all valuable resources whether you intend to search first and see a doctor later or to avoid seeing a doctor entirely. However, it is not clear how a commercial site can monetize these consumer eyeballs, beyond what WebMD has already done.

If it is about building a network of loyal physician users and advertise to them, the market already has entrenched players like the Physician Desk Reference, Epocrates and the numerous microsites that each pharmaceutical brand owns.

So, are these sites just jumping into a Red Ocean?  What do you think?

Sunday, January 1, 2012

US EHR Adoption and Market Share in 2011

In 2011, the adoption of EHR in the US picked up significantly as the HITECH incentive is paid out.  As we enter 2012, SK&A reported that all US medical practices are reporting an EHR adoption of 40.4%.  Solo practices are lagging the larger groups at an adoption rate of 30.8%.  I personally saw a number of large health care delivery organizations in Portland, Oregon installing EHR in the 2nd half of 2011.  Interestingly, they were all installing Epic.  That is proven out in the data below:
  • 1-3 clinicians - eClinicalWorks 14%.  Allscripts 11%.  Epic 6%.  GE 6%.  NextGen 5%. (9 companies = 60% share).
  • 4-10 clinicians - Epic 16%.  Allscripts 15%.  eClinicalWorks 12%.  GE 7%. (8 companies = 72% share)
  • 11+ clinicians - Epic 25%.  Cerner 16%.  Allscripts 16%.  NextGen 6%.  eCW 6%. (8 companies = 83% share)
It looks like there is already significant market share concentration for all the market segments.  The winners are the same ones who dominated when CCHIT ruled the day.

Even though as high as 35% of the physicians are expected to replace their current solution, they will likely buy from one of the vendors above.  It will be very hard for smaller and unknown players to emerge from obscurity, except maybe Practice Fusion, which stands out by being free and already Meaningful Use certified. 

In the enterprise software sector,  Oracle and SAP still rein supreme, with Salesforce.com being a successful "later comer".  If history repeats itself, I expect to see many smaller players exiting the EHR market in the coming years.


Note:  
  • Thank you to Michael Lake for providing some valuable market data in his monthly HIT Trends Report.
  • I previously worked on building a SaaS-based EHR, so I know a thing or two about the resources needed to build, market and support an Electronic Health Records.  I would love to hear if you feel late comers can still beat the established players in 2012 and how.